$NVDA (Nividia): Sign Here (Update)

(Disclaimer: Literally none of this is financial advice. If you take this as financial advice, the only thing you better be sending me are sad cat gifs. I am not liable for your financial gains or losses - this is just my uninformed opinion. Also everyone should be properly credited for their work - if I didn't let me know and I'll fix it)

Macro Outlook (The Semi Industry):

I love chips. Both kinds. But I really love my gaming chips more. Beautiful graphics. Beautiful games. But for a while, NVDA has been moving away from that - as the whole world knows.

The whole chip game has been moving toward AI.

Today, we have two different kinds of companies: the designs - i.e. the NVDA's of the worlds and the manufacturers: i.e the TSMC's of the world. What happens today is that our US based companies design the chips from Silicon Valley and then when an idea hits, they send out their orders to TSMC to manufacture.

Why? Well the US is expensive. It's the same reason why companies like Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and others all design here but when it comes to making it, the orders get shipped out off shore.

Our fear of falling behind has even lead to the CHIPs act - a law that will onshore chip production. Estimated to bring hundreds of thousands of jobs, millions of dollars, and counter Chinese aggression, the law is hard to argue against. We do need to stabilize our chip supply chain from Chinese aggression.

But until then, capacity is capped out and we have sold too much...

And that's what leads me into $NVDA directly

$NVDA: Priced In

NVDA is definitely still very much the darling of the Silicon Valley world. It's important and we need it if we're serious about the AI revolution.

Here are the facts:

NVDA is printing cash. They make so much money, it's insane. Their growth, their margins, everything.

Here are some visualizations courtesy of AlphaSpread:

It's undeniable that all the key metrics are positive. They're making so much, it's incredible.

Their earnings calls was bullish too. Q1 had a record $26B in revenue - up 262% YoY. You don't sneeze at those numbers. With the 10-1 stock split and the big dividend jump, quite a few more investors are incentivized to buy and hold.

With the next quarter coming up, robust growth is continued to be expected along with gross margins hovering around the mid-70% range.

But here's the thing....is this not all priced in at this point?

Honestly, the thing is, it's all a matter of how bullish we are on AI. Yes, retail users like us can subscribe to ChatGPT for a few bucks a month (I don't, I'm broke), but the question is how much are industrial giants willing to pay for AI.

We have some consulting firms running actual ChatGPT stuff to their clients (which is mind-boggling), we have companies like Salesforce looking in, everyone's adding AI.

Of course NVDA has it's competitors and they are sure to grow as more companies shift toward in-house development. But we've seen that cycle play out with the cloud already. AWS, Google Cloud, Microsoft whatever their cloud product is called.

There's always a gold standard that remains. In my opinion, it's NVDA that's going to remain the gold standard of the chip industry. With the latest and greatest coming out of their breakthroughs, they're only going to keep selling out of chips.

If you're bullish AI, you're bullish NVDA. That's all there is to it.

To me, it's still a buy at this price

Current Performance Snapshot (As of Close 7/5/2024):

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Price as of July 5, 2024: $125.83

Market Cap: $1.16B

P/E Ratio: 73.64

Dividend Yield: 0.032%

__________________________________________________________________Daily Chart Snapshot (As of Close 7/5/2024):