What is this? A draw for ants? (6/20/2024 EIA Report)

TLDR Whole Article: One could argue it's mildly bullish but with how much higher we are compared to last year, are we really though...?

Actual Recap:

Wow, how long has it been since we last saw a draw (also what is this, a draw for ants)? Honestly can't remember but I'm also not about to look back at what happened.

It's been 84 years...(I'd insert the gif here but it takes up too much space)

Let's take a look at the numbers:

Crude:

TLDR: Still very bearish but will admit to the fact that there was indeed a supply draw this week (but very very very marginal)

Despite all that we've seen in the markets the past few days, people are losing their minds over a small draw in crude. Is this the beginning of driving season demand? Is this the beginning of the next bull run? Is $100/bbl back?

No to all of the above.

Everyone on #oott is delusional and wants to see something that is extremely unlikely.

In fact, crude oil futures barely care and beyond that, hard to ignore the fact that the SPR is still up. Joe Biden you sly dog.

As mentioned last time, Every month we stay above the 0 line, we're looking at builds. The majority of the years typically feature draws during this season. The only notable exception to this rule is 2020...

Weekly Refinery Production:

Crude oil is still being pumped at a steady clip of 13.2kbd per day on average - literally no change WoW and suggests high utilization

SPR and Total Inventory:

And remember, as always, if we're averaging above 0 on this chart - we're leaning for builds:

Pricing:

Backwardated and Aug is barely holding onto 80 anymore

RBOB/GASOLINE:

TLDR: Still bearish literally nothing changing

Let's start with pricing:

Backwardated + market not impressed + skill issue

Why?

Well here's the deal - the demand might be up and the supply might have drawn down slightly but in real terms, has it really?

Days of supply are back down to 25.3 days from 25.6 but guess what? That's not a big change at all. In fact, that's literally where we were back a month ago...

And in dollar terms where we care about this at the pump, AAA shows us that markets really don't give a fuck either

Days of Supply (Bearish):

Product Supplied:

(As an aside I will concede exports are back up with arbs open but it's a matter of whether or not it will last)

Product supplied is up from 9040kbd to 9386kbd but still remains on the lower end. As long as inventory is high, we remain bearish